Can Twitter Predict The Future?

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For effectively over a century writers have expressed their visions of the future, and those visions have attracted fans in such excellent numbers that an whole genre has grown up around them: Science Fiction. In the 19th Century, Jules Verne and H.G. Wells wrote of robotics, world wars, warfare tactics which includes aerial bombing, use of tanks and chemical weapons, and nuclear power. In 1945, Arthur C. Clarke foreshadowed telecommuting, mobile phones and the net. What is astounding about these predictions is that they came correct.

Mathematical Modeling

Possessing a foreknowledge of events to come puts the knower in a very powerful position. Who wouldnt want to know the outcome of sporting events, or which stocks had been about to take off? From a national security standpoint, being aware of your adversarys plans what they intend to do and when they intend to do it is a defensive weapon much more potent than nuclear bombs and dtente.
Mathematical models have been designed to predict the stock market, the spread of ailments, and presidential elections. Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita claims to have spent 25 years perfecting a personal computer model that can predict the outcome of any international conflict provided, he says, that the fundamental input is precise. In the words of Shakespeares Hamlet: aye, theres the rub. To make reasonably accurate predictions, quality input should be offered due to the fact garbage in = garbage out.

The CIA and Recorded Future

The CIA is particularly interested in identifying threats to US safety, and they have found an data supply right out in the open Twitter. Former CIA Director Michael Hayden told a conference in 2008: Secret information isnt usually the brass ring in our professiontheres a genuine satisfaction in solving a dilemma or answering a challenging query with data that an individual was dumb sufficient to leave out in the open.

The CIA and Google have invested in a commence-up known as Recorded Future with the hope that they can provide the correct raw information necessary to predict the future. Recorded Future scans tens of thousands of sites, Twitter accounts, and blogs and notes the individuals, locations, and activities they mention. They then examine when and exactly where the events happened (spatial and temporal evaluation) and the tone of the document (sentiment evaluation). An artificial intelligence algorithm looks for connections among folks and events.

Recorded Future claims its temporal analytics engine goes beyond search by hunting at the invisible hyperlinks between documents that speak about the same, or associated, entities and events. The goal is to figure out for each and every incident who was involved, where it occurred and when an incident might take place. Recorded Future then plots the online chatter, showing the momentum for any provided event by means of a momentum curve.

Recorded Future has had some public successes. In March of this year, Israeli President Shimon Peres accused the terrorist group Hezbollah of getting scud-like weapons. Recorded Future scanned statements produced by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and located evidence to corroborate the accusation.

Perhaps the future is inevitable once events obtain a specific momentum. If that is the case, the Arthur C. Clarke prediction of immediate individual-to-individual contact anyplace in the world was inevitable as soon as Comsat was a reality. Twitter, Yahoo and other people currently have in location a momentum measuring device in their Trending measurement. Recorded Future takes Twitter Trending to the subsequent level and into the future.